كشكول جعفر الخابوري الاسبوعي يناير٢٠٢٥م

[محروم.كوم]

Jean Marco

Translation: Adwiya Al-Hilali
In November 2024, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan publicly congratulated his “friend Donald Trump” on his election victory. The language and tone of this reaction reflected the personal closeness the two men had shown during Trump’s first term, reinforcing the notion that a new era had begun in Turkish-American relations, following the sense of stagnation that prevailed during Joe Biden’s presidency. However, in recent months, Turkey has adopted a cautious approach to the US elections, declaring its readiness to work with whoever emerges victorious. Indeed, Erdoğan was one of the few heads of state to phone the Republican candidate after Trump’s first attack over the summer. However, as was the case during Trump’s previous elections, many indicators suggest that Turkey’s satisfaction stems primarily from the hope that the new presidency will not be worse than the previous one, rather than from the belief that it will be much better.
Internally, Erdoğan and the AKP appear increasingly headed for a downward spiral, due to the Turkish economy’s crisis. In March 2024, during local elections, the ruling party suffered its first real electoral defeat, not only failing to retake the two major cities of Ankara and Istanbul, which it had lost in 2019, but also being narrowly defeated at the national level by the Kemalist Republican People’s Party (CHP), the main opposition party. The resulting challenge is not an easy one for the man who has ruled Turkey for 22 years, as he now faces the task of halting the stubborn rise of the opposition while also finding a way to amend the constitution to allow him to run for president again in 2028. Given the growing discontent with the presidency, many believe that early elections could further accelerate this precarious deadline. On the international stage, after its successes in mediating the Russia-Ukraine conflict and demonstrating its ability to strike a bold balance between Kiev and Moscow, Turkey has struggled to find its place in a Middle East shaken by the revitalization of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Since October 7, 2023, and marginalized in attempts to resolve this crisis, it has ultimately found itself caught between two sources of tension - in the Black Sea and in the Eastern Mediterranean - which perpetuate a permanent conflict as well as instability, which does not help its economy to recover. In this context, Erdoğan's initial optimism after the announcement of the results of the US presidential election was not enough to overcome the deep sense of bewilderment in which the possibility of Trump's return plunged not only the leaders, but also the Turkish political class and society as a whole. However, the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime changes the situation and represents, in many ways, a glimmer of hope for Turkey that must be taken into account, although the consequences of this event remain uncertain.
Donald Trump's unexpected victory, his populism, his criticism of the elites, his claim to represent the forgotten masses in the ruling circles, his exploitation of religion, and his unapologetic bias did not fail to win the sympathy of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and this understanding was, in fact, immediately mutual. In the spring of 2017, the new US president was among the first leaders to congratulate the AKP leader on his victory in the constitutional referendum that transformed Turkey into an authoritarian presidential system, while most European leaders expressed concern about the future of Turkish democracy. But it turned out that this political rapprochement did not prevent disagreements from arising and escalating into a merciless confrontation. Thus, a year later, Donald Trump, seeking to capture the evangelical vote in the midterm elections, did not hesitate to impose severe economic sanctions on Turkey to put pressure. Turkey released the American pastor Andrew Brunson, who was arrested and sentenced as part of the purges that followed the 2016 coup attempt for his alleged ties to the Gülen movement. Recognizing the fragility of the personal relationship between the two men leads one to believe that the Turkish leader’s alignment with Trump’s positions is also tactical, if not opportunistic. Erdogan and the AKP, in power since 2002, have extensive experience in managing relations with Washington, having survived two Republican and two Democratic presidencies, each marked by the unpredictability of American diplomacy. Indeed, if Trump manages to broker peace in Ukraine, as he has promised, he may win the favor of some Turks, who have always been concerned about long-running crises and conflicts on their borders. However, Trump’s return to power could be a major problem for Turkey, and the close relationship between Trump and Erdogan will not be enough to overcome their differences in their approach to geopolitics in the Near East. Having been criticized domestically by the opposition for maintaining an ambiguous relationship with the Israeli state—which has combined harsh condemnations with continued lucrative trade—Turkish leaders have sought to challenge the economic ties that have served as a crutch for the countries’ flawed diplomacy. In addition, Turkey has been very active in international forums and networks to condemn the Israeli position. Moreover, Turkey called on the international community to recognize the State of Palestine, and praised the countries that did so, such as Spain, Ireland, Norway 2024, and even Armenia, and finally, Ankara joined South Africa in filing a genocide complaint against Israel at the International Court of Justice.

However, the most important issue for Turkey before Donald Trump's inauguration is the Syrian crisis and the Kurdish question associated with it. While Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed optimism about the policy that the new US president could follow
Weekly Facts Revealed Magazine Editor-in-Chief Jaafar Al-Khabouri __DEFINE_LIKE_SHARE__