Critical Analysis: An expert’s comments on the so called “GCC Unity”
 

We have asked an expert on the Middle East politics of his opinion on the so called "GCC Unity". His reply is posted bellow:

I think there are two factors:

1. Bolstering the regimes, the status quo, to suppress internal pressure against the rulers. This is especially the case for Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, the two regimes that are most under pressure from within.
2. To form a unified military bulwark for the US against Iran.

The union idea (and it is only an idea) is completely forced and artificial, just like these very states are themselves. They are after all just ex-colonial fortresses that were given made up titles and rulers with fancy titles only in the last few decades. Bahrain with its thousands of years of history is the exception. It is the only true territory with centuries of distinct history. So this latest union idea, which the Bahraini foreign minister called the "fulfillment of a dream for the Gulf peoples", is a completely false project based on the concerns of the elite ruling minority as well as their foreign masters.
History and culture mean nothing to such people. They will buy and sell, raid and rape any territory without respect for tradition. And because of this lack of respect their plans will fail. They are trying to build a house made of sand with no foundations.


To illustrate this mentality, look at the way Jordan and Morocco were invited last year to join this Gulf union. What have those two countries got to do with the Gulf? They may as well have invited Pakistan and India to join. So the historical, cultural integrity of the region is irrelevant. It is all about circling political jeeps to give strength to the regimes within the jeeps against their own people.
That's why it is an idea that is bound to fail. There is no sound basis to the union except for the elites' paranoia and fear for survival.

And because there is no real genuine, substantive, historical reason for such a union, there will be lots of rivalries and in-fighting among the elites. At this stage, it is an idea that suits the Saudi and closely aligned Bahraini elites. But you won't see Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait or Oman buying into it. They will see it as the House of Saud forcing its way on the others. If you remember, the UAE and Oman pulled the plug on the single currency project back in 2009 because they saw it as being too much a bid by the Saudis for control. That kind of rivalry will only increase with the latest union proposal to the point where the project will fall like the house of sand that it is.

On this point, it may be relevant that the US and the Brits have been stirring tensions up between the UAE and Iran over the Abu Musa islands. The US also sent its top fighter jets, the F22 Raptors to the UAE. This may be a way of trying to cajole the UAE into the Saudi-led Gulf union and giving the UAE nice big toys if they are good boys.


So, it's a Saudi-led project and of course the tiny little puppets in Manama will say Yes to everything their immediate Saudi masters will tell them. I take your point about why would they do this if they know that the other Gulf monarchs would be unwilling. Well, sometimes arrogance can make people very stupid. Especially, if the arrogant people think that they are the big guns of the US and Britain behind them.

I think the US and Britain are supporting it because they see it as consolidating their hegemony over the oil-rich region from internal instability and towards Iran.




Origianl URL https://www.facebook.com/note.php?no...58021614255410